I Have Returned

It’s been almost a year since my last posting, having been inactive due to Family probl… (yadda, yadda, yadda).

Ahem.

Anyway, I’m back and rarin’ to go, so hitch up your pants and hang onto your hat!

A lot has happened during the past nine months, and if the Media is anything to go by, we’re in for a rocky ride.

But then again, they seldom report the good stuff, right?

So it can’t all be bad.

• There’s a new kid on the block in Washington and things are looking up
• Wall street is dead and the greedy fat cats are history
• IBM sparked a rally with an encouraging 2009 forecast
• Productivity of US workers rose 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, and overall gained 2.8 percent for the year. Hourly wages rose 5.0 percent
• The Bank of America CEO said “Results are Encouraging”
• Free hugs startled downtown shoppers

There’s plenty of good news out there if you look for it, besides, if you think about it, ‘It’s a Wonderful World’ as Louis Armstrong once put it.

On the other hand there’s the media… but let’s not go into that right now.

Ok, let’s take a look at the economy.

Did you know that our attitudes are probably the single most important factor when it comes to turning an economic bust into an economic boom?

Let me give you an example:

As you all probably know, boom/bust cycles have been with us since the dawn of time. In the early days, they were tied into nature and weather cycles, (something to do with sun-spot activity, I believe) -- seven years of feast, and seven years of famine – that sort of thing.

Somehow or other these seesaw cycles have persisted.

Let’s say you own a factory that manufactures Razor Blades, (let’s forget about the new-fangled cartridges for a moment).

One day a smartass kid who’s studied economics says to a pal of yours, “Hey, we’ve had it good for almost eight years. Better start pulling your horns in, because the infallible economic cycles tell us tough times are just around the corner.”

So your buddy thinks about it and starts economizing. Blades are expensive, so he decides to stop changing blades daily and make them last a week… and that’s when bad thing start to happen:

• He passes on the news to you and your friends; you all start economizing and spreading the bad news.
• Demand for blades begin to taper off, so your friend was right after all
  
• You cut back on steel orders and stop replacing workers who quit. You cancel the night shift
• The steel merchant cuts back on imports and fires half his sales staff
• Unemployment figures rise
  
• A steel mill cuts production. The iron ore mine half way round the world closes…

Bingo!

• Seven years later some dude says, “Don’t worry, history tells us we’re in for a boom”, and folks start believing him and passing the word on
• The news spreads, people start spending a little more on luxuries
• More men start shaving with a new blade
  
• You buy that vacant lot next door and put up an extension to your plant
• You take advantage of low steel prices and place a big order. You hire more people for the night shift

Get the picture?

Cheer up, cancel your newspaper subscription and turn off the TV news.

Start walking on the sunny side and good things are bound to follow!